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Likelihood of a Larg-Scale Solar EMP - from Quora.com

What is the likelihood of large-scale solar generated EMP catastrophe?

4 Answers
Rupert Baines
One of my colleagues was on a government advisory board about just this

There are different intensity solar flares, from trivial to severe.

The one to be scared of is "Carrington Event"   Solar storm of 1859

If (when) happens it could be really, really bad
The Wikipedia article has some nice descriptions (Northern lights visible as far south as Caribbean etc).

One estimate (from NASA)
"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions.
Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair.
The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina
Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts


That is optimistic.

More probably anything electronic will be destroyed: computers, cellphones, tv, GPS etc.
The chips and front end receivers may well fry and there is little we can do to protect them.

That includes all modern cars.

Electrical things will be destroyed too.
Power networks might melt.
Transformers explode.
In some cases we can protect against this with planning and fast action.

Massive outbreaks of fire everywhere as wiring melts in homes and offices

No computer networks, no electricity, no drinking water or sewage (as no electricity), no food distribution...

This is seriously bad

It is in the same category of civilisation destroying threat as a really big asteroid strike

How likely is it?

We have absolutely no way of knowing

We have seen one in 150 years.

Is that a one in a million year thing and we got lucky to see that one?
Or once every fifty years and we got lucky to miss one - but are now overdue?

We do know it is possible but no idea how probable

There was quite a big storm in 1921.
To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid.
He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power.
The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."
"The concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site."
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